Chad's 2027 budget: a 7.3% growth target, a realistic bet?

A budget to deliver Chad Connexion 2030

In a circular letter sent on 31 July 2026 to the Prime Minister and members of the government, the head of state set the course: the 2027 budget must no longer simply roll over the previous year's spending. It must become the operational tool of the national development plan Chad Connexion 2030, with clear priorities: infrastructure, human capital, governance and economic diversification.

7.3%: the stated ambition

The government is targeting growth of 7.3% in 2027, compared with 5.3% projected for 2026 and 5.1% recorded in 2025. The acceleration would rely on agriculture, livestock, mining, financial services, digital technology, tourism and better electricity and water supply.

International institutions are more cautious. The World Bank forecasts 5.3% in 2027 and the IMF expects a slight slowdown to 4.9%.

The real battle: fiscal space

Chad's economy remains exposed to volatile oil revenue. To fund its ambitions without increasing debt, the state must raise non-oil revenue and make better use of every franc spent. Fitch expects a broadly balanced budget in 2026, followed by a small average deficit of 0.7% of GDP over 2027–2028.

What to watch in parliament

When the finance bill is examined, three questions will deserve attention: the real share of investment spending, the realism of revenue forecasts, and the mechanisms for monitoring execution. It is on this last point that the "budget of execution" will be judged.

Key figures

• Government growth target for 2027: 7.3%
• World Bank forecast: 5.3%; IMF forecast: 4.9%
• Deficit expected by Fitch: 0.7% of GDP on average over 2027–2028